North Korea and the diplomatic impasse

North Korea is a country full of contradictions. It builds huge monuments to their leaders, but it cannot feed its own population. Has the biggest army in the world, containing approximately 1 soldier for each 25 inhabitants, but its technical superiority does not exist. However, the greatest contradiction is related to its official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The official definitions for “republic” and “democracy” are:

Republic: “Type of government in which the Chief of State is elected by citizens or their representatives, staying in power for a limited period” – Dictionary of the English Language

Democracy: “It’s a government regime in which the power to make important political decisions is with the citizens, directly or indirectly, by elected representatives.” – Adapted from: Wikipedia

It is notorious that the Asian country did not respect, throughout its existence, neither of the two main concepts present in its name. Power has always been focused in the hands of the descendants of Kim Il-Sung, monarch who had not gotten to presidency by popular initiative. Moreover, the presidential mandates have indefinite duration, so they can be extended until the death of each leader. Therefore, it is noted that the North Korean state is far from corresponding to the expectations provoked by its nomenclature.

In 1905, North Korea was invaded by Japan, country which in the following 5 years annexed to its domains the South territories as well. Following World War II, the region was divided into American (in the South) and Soviet (in the North) areas of influence ¹. Under the command of president Kim Il-Sung, socialism was adopted, what made the country dependent of the Soviet Union. The founder of the recently-created nation died in 1994, fourteen years after appointing his son as a successor to the power, Kim Jong-il.

The new president deepened even more North Koreans’ international isolation. The policy adopted by his government, characterized by extreme power centralization, has contributed to the increase of the indexes of poverty. Beyond that, the military ideals acquired from the past of USSR have continued to exist with the creation of a controversial nuclear program. Although the initiative is not seen positively by international organizations, the previous president assured that it was a peaceful project. Many times, bellicose ambitions have been negotiated for humanitarian aid, even though those deals have not been completely respected by the country ².

In a attempt to hinder DPRK (acronym for North Korea’s name) from obtaining nuclear artefacts, international diplomacy has used several methods. Deals were made and disrespected shortly. Sanctions were approved by the United Nations Security Council, including less effective restrictions such as the prohibition of the trade of luxury articles. Certain moments were even characterized by a global negligence over the events taking place in the Korean Peninsula.

After the demise of the Soviet Union, China has taken its place of main contributor to Kim Jong-il’s regime. This scenario can easily be noticed when analysing economic data from North Korea. Its estimated 40 billion dollars GDP come from 67.2% of exports to the South-Asian powerful country. When considering imports, the “world’s factory” consumes 61.6% of the products manufactured by its partner. This position of dependence is crucial to comprehending the Chinese role in containing DPRK’s speech.

Currently, North Korean government believes that it possesses a greater importance in global geopolitics. Using strategies typical from the Cold War, high-ranking officers in the country consider that having nuclear weapons constitutes a major factor to guarantee internal security. Indeed, nations with this type of weaponry have never been attacked by others. The configuration of global institutions proves that nations which have mass destruction devices either have main functions in those organisms or are treated well by those which have.

DPRK’s ultra-nationalist feeling can be explained by the recent change in power. Kim Jong-il’s death brought to the presidency the inexperienced Kim Jong-un, who is only 30 years old. The advancements in nuclear technology and the necessity to consolidate the new government brought euphoria to North Korea’s elite. Amid an economic crisis that affects the country, speeches and provocative videos against the US and its allies help to increment the young leader’s popularity. Even the usual military parades in Pyongyang are simple attempts to showcase an non-existent power. Note in the video below the type of propaganda divulged by the North Korean news agency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFxf98GpRj4

The concern of many countries to avoid a conflict is clearly noticeable. The United States, for example, tries to contain its diplomatic speech to avoid escalating tensions in the socialist nation. Nevertheless, it must be considered that taking in consideration Kim Jong-un’s exacerbated rhetoric is not an attitude as prudent as most of the world believes it is, due to these following reasons:

1. There are great chances that the North Korean government is taking advantage from the series of threats to later require other multilateral deals. In the past, it was proven that DPRK disobeys several requirements negotiated previously. Consequently, the realization of negotiations has only temporary effect.

2. The increment of American military presence in the Sea of Japan leads to two negative consequences. In a more direct manner, the increase of expenses for the USA during a critical period of its economy, which is still recuperating from the 2008 crisis. Additionally, an indirect effect is the possibility of another argument to be explored by Kim Jong-un, the American role as “the world’s police”

3. The possibilities of happening a miscalculated event that could trigger war are higher. In case of an armed conflict, South Korea’s and Japan’s economies would suffer major setbacks. Without doubt, the confrontation would force an intervention of the US, what means the end of the socialist dynasty.

As the actions done currently to stop or attenuate North Korean’s ambitions have not achieved practical results, the solution of this problem seems even more distant. However, it must not be assumed the impossibility to solve the situation. Alternatives not put in practice yet by the international community appear in this context as possible options to integrate North Korea with other countries.

The peaceful method consists of the reduction of sanctions imposed by UN, as well as the end of unnecessary military moves in the Korean peninsula. As the restrictions are reduced, DPRK would not have motives to continue its warmongering rhetoric. A downside is that there is risk that Kim Jong-un might consider this initiative as an opportunity to pressure even more other nations involved.

In lieu of the pacifist ideology, war also is an option studied by the US, South Korea and Japan. South Korean troops conduct annual training with its American counterpart so as to be prepared in case a conflict breaks out. However, the socialist regime does have many conventional weapons, not nuclear, which could affect its neighbouring countries. Hwasong missiles, for instance, have been developed using Soviet technology and even sold to Iran and Syria.

The most viable way to end North Korea’s issue includes intervention from China. The Chinese have replaced USSR in the position of sustaining the dictatorial socialist regime. Due to this, a tougher posture from the Chinese government should warn North Korea’s leaders of the danger involved in maintaining the bellicose rhetoric. If that intervention is not enough, even greater isolation of the DPRK may cause a popular uprising against Kim Jong-un, what makes the opening of the regime an adequate option. The dictator uses concentration camps to imprison opponents, although this practice would not have effect in case of a wider crisis in the country.

The ending of tensions in the Korean Peninsula may even occur, if Chinese diplomacy, which has veto power in the UN Security Council, adopted a more radical speech regarding its ally. There is a new president taking up office in China, and this change of power combined with the exponential growth of the country’s economy makes possible the existence of this scenario in the short term. On the other hand, it is not possible to know whether it will have direct repercussions on Jong-un’s government or it will only affect the lives of millions of Koreans who are not responsible for the politics of the government that controls them.

Sources and related articles

• Why we should not be bothered by the chaos in North Korea?

• CIA Factbook (CIA)

• North Korea profile (BBC)

• North Korea: the real threat (Le Monde Diplomatique)

Originally published on thimabi.wordpress.com.